"Under the influence of the epidemic, no enterprise can get full marks." After a difficult 2021, the "good start" of 2022 expected by the industry did not come as scheduled.

After sorting out the first quarter performance reports of 20 A-share condiment listed companies, seasoner found that only 7 companies achieved double increases in revenue and net profit; Five enterprises increased their income without increasing their profits; The number of enterprises with both revenue and net profit decreased also has 6; In addition, the revenue of Fuling mustard decreased and the net profit increased. It is worth mentioning that among the 20 enterprises, 13 enterprises have declined in different ranges in terms of deducting non net profits that better reflect their main business.

Obviously, such a start is difficult to be called the "good start" of the industry. Why is it such a situation? Will 2022 be more difficult than 2021?

01

Category price rise

Drive the performance of raw material enterprises to soar

Qianhe flavor industry, Tianwei food, Angel yeast, Meihua biology, Xuetian salt industry, Su Yanjing God and lotus monosodium glutamate achieved double increases in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of this year. Among them, Angel yeast also declined in deducting non net profit.

From this, it is not difficult to find that, except for Qianhe flavor industry and Tianwei food, most of the other enterprises are mainly based on the supply of raw materials (although Lianhua monosodium glutamate is mainly based on the C-end business, its main monosodium glutamate category largely depends on the supply of raw materials), and these enterprises had a good start in the first quarter of this year.

There is only one reason behind this: the continuous rise of product prices.

For example, the price per ton of edible salt of suyanjingshen in 2021 was 593.21 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, and the contract increased by 30.69 yuan / ton; However, in the first quarter of 2022, the price per ton of edible salt of the enterprise reached 760.4 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 29.75% and a contract increase of 174.33 yuan / ton. Moreover, the price of industrial salt and soda ash products of the enterprise has increased more than that of edible salt. Xuetian salt industry, whose business format is similar to that of suyanjingshen, also said in the first quarter report that the large increase in performance is mainly due to the strong market demand in the reporting period and the year-on-year increase in volume and price of the company's main products.

Meihua biology said in its first quarterly report that due to the rising prices of monosodium glutamate, xanthan gum and other products, the revenue of the company's food taste character optimization products (monosodium glutamate, nucleotide and food grade xanthan gum) increased by 22.39% year-on-year. According to the report of West China Securities, the costs of monosodium glutamate in the first quarter were at an all-time high, and the purchase prices of corn, soda ash and power coal were higher than those in the same period in history. The upstream promoted the rise of monosodium glutamate prices.

According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the average transaction price of 40 mesh large package monosodium glutamate in the first quarter was 9325.4 yuan / ton, up 7.9% year-on-year and 27.8% compared with the first quarter of 2020. As of April 25, the mainstream transaction price of 80 items of domestic food grade xanthan gum was 36000-36500 yuan / ton, up 62.9% year-on-year and stable month on month.

On April 25, Meihua biological said in response to investors' questions that the latest industry quotation of monosodium glutamate is about 10200-10500 yuan / ton.

Obviously, monosodium glutamate prices remain high, benefiting not only Meihua biology, but also enterprises such as Fufeng group, Ningxia Yipin and even Lianhua health.

In addition, daodaoquan also said on the investor interaction platform on May 7 that the company believes that from the current situation, the supply and demand fundamentals of oil and grease are tight, and due to the impact of other uncertain factors such as the duration of the COVID-19, weather, energy and the international political and economic situation, the trend of the raw material market will be uncertain.

02

Collective "halberd" of grain, oil, soy sauce and vinegar enterprises

Among the 20 enterprises surveyed by seasoner, the enterprises mainly engaged in grain and oil business can be described as having poor performance.

Among them, although the revenue growth of Golden Arowana reached double digits, the net profit and non net profit decreased significantly. The golden dragon fish performed fairly well in all three oil enterprises, such as Xiwang food and daodaoquan. Not only did the revenue, net profit and non net profit decline sharply, but there were tens of millions of losses at the profit level.

Compared with oil enterprises, the overall performance of soy sauce and vinegar enterprises represented by Haitian flavor industry, Zhongju high tech, Qianhe flavor industry, Jiajia food and Hengshun vinegar industry is not optimistic. Only Qianhe flavor industry stands out, and the three indicators have recorded positive double-digit growth.

However, it is worth mentioning that behind the growth of Qianhe flavor industry, in addition to the reduction of advertising investment in the period explained by Qianhe flavor industry, the low base in the first quarter of 2021 is also an important reason. For example, in the first quarter of 2021, although the revenue of Qianhe flavor industry increased by 32.91%, the attributable net profit and deducted non net profit decreased by 43.34% and 39.32% respectively year-on-year. Even if the first quarter of this year can be called a "good start", except that the revenue of Qianhe flavor industry exceeded the first quarter of 2020, the gross profit, net profit and deducted non net profit were less than the first quarter of 2020. In addition, the revenue, net profit and non net profit of Qianhe flavor industry in the first quarter of this year decreased by 15.38%, 38.28% and 37.54% respectively, that is to say, there is still a certain gap to be recovered from 2020.

As the leader of the soy sauce industry, Haitian flavor industry not only recorded a high single quarter revenue, but also did not continue the past high-speed growth in terms of net profit and deduction of non net profit growth, but also recorded the second worst single quarter growth in history, second only to the second quarter of 2021.

Similar to Haitian flavor industry are Zhongju high tech and Hengshun vinegar industry. Fortunately, although everyone performed similarly, the decline was not large, and Hengshun vinegar industry still achieved a slight increase at the level of deducting non net profit.

In contrast, as one of the four listed enterprises of soy sauce, the performance of Jiajia food was a little worse. Although there was a slight increase in revenue, the decline in net profit and deduction of non net profit ranked fourth among the 20 condiment listed enterprises. Jiajia food said that the growth of operating revenue benefited from the increase of marketing efforts. According to the first quarterly report, the sales cost of Jiajia food was 53.7307 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.16%. At the same time, the company said that it was mainly due to the increase of front-line marketing personnel and the increase of publicity, promotion and travel standards.

03

Market of compound condiments and pickles

The recovery was less than expected

Among the 20 listed companies, the overall performance of the companies whose main business is compound seasoning is poor, which objectively reflects that the whole track has not completely got rid of the sluggish performance of the category market.

Among them, the performance of Tianwei food, as the leader of Sichuan seasoning, has recovered, and the overall performance is acceptable. But the reason behind it is similar to Qianhe flavor industry from Sichuan. However, the growth of Tianwei food was due to the 45% year-on-year increase of Chinese dish seasonings accounting for more than 50% and the effect of de stocking through dealer channels, which accelerated the shipment of the company in the first quarter and driven the growth of dealer channels by 23.42%. At the same time, the recovery of the company's customized meal preparation business, direct business supermarket and foreign trade channels also boosted the company's performance. However, hot pot seasoning, which accounts for nearly 40% of the main business of Tianwei food, fell by 3.24%. It is worth mentioning that in the first quarter of this year, Tianwei food also experienced a decline in the number of dealers. Among them, the number of dealers in Northeast China, South China and central China decreased. Among them, the number of dealers in Northeast China decreased from 322 to 54, that is to say, in this region, one sixth of Tianwei food's dealers and companies parted ways, which may not be a good thing for Tianwei food, which urgently needs to open the foreign market, However, it cannot be ruled out that the worrying quality of dealers leads to the active adjustment of enterprises.

In addition to Tianwei food, the performance of Anji food for spareribs powder, Jialong shares for chicken essence and chicken powder, and Zhongjing food for mushroom sauce were not as expected. In particular, Jialong shares, which has mainly promoted the "large dealer system" in the past two years, not only has the overall scale of the enterprise is small, but also in the level of net profit and deduction of non net profit. It is the only condiment enterprise with losses among the 20 enterprises except oil enterprises, and the decline is the largest among the 20 enterprises.

In addition, there is customized meal adjustment business. In the first quarter of this year, the customized meal adjustment business of Tianwei food achieved a revenue of 51.9279 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.95%; The overall revenue of richen shares, which takes the customized meal adjustment as the main revenue source, is only more than 20 million yuan higher than the customized meal adjustment of Tianwei food, but the increase is only 7.11%, and there has been a decline in net profit and deduction of non net profit.

Like compound condiments, the performance of pickle industry is not optimistic.

Among them, Fuling pickled mustard revenue and deduction of non net profit have declined, but subject to the gross profit growth brought by the price increase, the company has increased in net profit. However, Zhu Laoliu, who also belongs to the pickle industry, was not so lucky. All indicators fell significantly. It can be seen that his main fermented bean curd and pickled vegetables performed poorly in the first quarter of this year. From the perspective of these two enterprises, the importance of brand is more thoroughly reflected in the pickle industry.

04

What is the difference between 2022 and the first two years?

Frankly speaking, the "gold content" of the first quarterly report of seasoning listed enterprises is not high, and its reference significance to the whole year's industry is relatively limited, but this does not affect us to "get a glimpse and know the whole leopard". With the mentality of "bold assumption and careful verification", spearstone finally dared to discuss with you "will the condiment industry be better or worse in 2022?" This relatively heavy topic.

Before discussing this topic, let's briefly review the industry situation in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021.

As we all know, the epidemic has gradually spread to the world from 2020, which is also the most frightening period of time. However, before the logistics and terminals were blocked, most channels had finished preparing goods. Later, due to the influence of "home anti epidemic", the circulation path of the whole condiment industry changed, and the unscrupulous community group purchase rose. From the industrial side, due to the stagnation of logistics at that time, most enterprises' shipments were blocked and orders could not be issued, which was also the fundamental reason for the poor performance of most enterprises in the first quarter of that year.

After the first quarter, most consumers were full of unknown fear of the epidemic, increased the reserve of seasonings just needed, and the quantity exceeded the scope of normal life use, which was the key to the soaring performance of the whole industry that year.

Look at the first quarter of 2021. At that time, most enterprises made optimistic estimates about the peak season of the Spring Festival with reference to the situation in 2020, so they increased the pressure on the channels to prevent the occurrence of signs of no goods for sale. However, the overall epidemic prevention and control throughout the country during the Spring Festival was relatively stable, and the weather was good, which led to the normal circulation of all walks of life, resulting in the goods in the dealer warehouse not being sold, Therefore, the sluggish dynamic sales of major enterprises occurred in the second quarter.

In other words, in the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, all signs are unconventional. Based on the experience of the past two years, it can be basically asserted that the sporadic epidemic can no longer expect the retaliatory growth of performance for enterprises again, because this possibility is almost zero.

The key is to find out how 2022 is different from the previous two years - the fundamental difference lies in the circulation environment of daily necessities.

On the one hand, the overall epidemic situation has been effectively controlled. Even if sporadic outbreaks occur occasionally, it is also regional prevention and control, with limited impact on the fundamentals of the national market; On the other hand, for sporadic epidemic areas, there have been relatively mature measures to ensure supply and people's livelihood, and the circulation resistance of freshly needed materials such as condiments has begun to weaken; There is also a change in the concept of consumers. Even in the event of an epidemic, most consumers "stay at home" in about 14 days, so the behavior of blindly hoarding goods is also greatly reduced. In addition, the channels for consumers to buy condiments are changing. With the gradual standardization of new channels such as community group buying, enterprises have also introduced measures to deal with the platform, and more and more consumers are willing to buy condiments from the platform.

05

Will 2022 be better?

First look at the level of raw materials represented by monosodium glutamate. Huaxi Securities pointed out in the report that in the first quarter, the epidemic situation was severe, the transportation restrictions were strict, and the catering industry was greatly impacted. Superimposed on the off-season of conventional demand, if the epidemic continued or the transportation continued to be blocked, the consumption of monosodium glutamate in the second quarter is expected to decline to a certain extent. Monosodium glutamate, as a basic seasoning for freshening, 30% of the demand is used for catering and 70% for food processing industry. With the development of food industry, the food taste characteristics of Meihua biology are optimized, and part of the income of products may continue to be stable and good.

Combined with the current economic situation, international relations and the price trend of soybean, oil and other bulk commodities, it is unlikely that the prices of various raw materials will fall this year. Therefore, the whole industry will still face cost pressure. Unfortunately, most seasoning enterprises have raised prices successively in the fourth quarter of last year, and the transmission situation is not ideal. Therefore, it is obvious that there are no conditions for raising prices again, Ultimately, enterprises can only bear this part of the pressure.

From the industrial side, the impact of sporadic outbreaks on the industry still exists. Taking Haitian flavor industry as an example, most of its production is mainly concentrated in Guangzhou and Foshan. The epidemic in Guangdong in the first quarter of this year led to its poor shipment, which is why, as the only seasoning enterprise that truly realizes nationalization, it actually faced the situation of increasing income without increasing profit in the first quarter of this year.

Looking ahead to 2022, the whole condiment industry is still in the recovery period. Stabilization is our common goal, which is also the key for major enterprises to reduce costs one after another. Just like when we proposed "prepare for the hard times" in early 2021, but now the hard times are not over, but fortunately we have survived the most difficult period.

From the consumer side, regardless of the epidemic or not, the total consumption closely related to consumers' three meals a day has not changed much, but the path of consumption is changing: restaurants can't eat in class and take out, take out can't eat at home, and buy on the platform when the store is closed.

For different enterprises, if they have to be divided into different levels, the enterprises that pay more attention to channels in 2022 will have more obvious benefits. In addition to traditional channels, the more experienced enterprises such as e-commerce and community group buying will also benefit. After all, all current business models should eventually return to rationality, which is good for enterprises as a whole, especially for enterprises that are good at offline and then online. After baptism, e-commerce channels are more conducive to and more suitable for the development of the real economy.

However, at the enterprise level, the theme of the strong will always be strong will not change. Taking the soy sauce category in Shandong market as an example, as the best province for local brands to block foreign brands, Haitian flavor industry has gradually gained advantages locally and even won the championship in some regions. With Haitian's routine, it is only a matter of time to become the first local brand over time, followed by squeezing the living space of local regional brands.

Therefore, the basic seasoning category still maintains the competitive situation of mutual extrusion between existing leading enterprises and regional brands, and under various pressures, the pressure of small and medium-sized brands will become greater in 2022.

In the field of compound condiments, based on the business performance of enterprises in the first quarter of this year and combined with the judgment of the market, the whole compound condiments, especially hot pot condiments, are continuously "cooling down", superimposed with the influence of multiple factors such as sporadic epidemics, the overall performance of the compound condiment track in 2022 will not be very good, but it does not rule out that individual enterprises take the opportunity to widen or narrow the gap with leading enterprises.

In contrast, the real pressure in 2022 is the dealer group, especially the dealers of big brands.

On the one hand, the gross profit space left by big brands to dealers is not high, and there are not many competitors; On the other hand, channel sinking is the main work that big brands are gradually promoting at present. Then the market area and channels of dealers will be reduced irreversibly, and the incremental space is bound to narrow synchronously. Therefore, where is the growth point in the future? It's something big brand dealers should consider.

In addition, the pressure brought by e-commerce channels, including community group buying, especially the sporadic epidemic this year has pulled back the heat of community group buying again. However, this channel is generally directly operated by enterprises, but it does face consumers all over the country, so it will form a competitive relationship with regional dealers. As the platform has the characteristics dominated by the interests of consumers, more and more consumers tend to buy on the platform with less contact and home delivery. For example, Haitian flavor industry rushed to the first position of platform sales in condiment industry in a short time.